Reprint of "Seismic monitoring of the Plosky Tolbachik eruption in 2012-2013 (Kamchatka Peninsula Russia)"

Abstract The active basaltic volcano Plosky Tolbachik (Pl. Tolbachik) is located in the southern part of the Klyuchevskoy volcano group on the Kamchatka Peninsula. The previous 1975–1976 Great Tolbachik Fissure Eruption (1975–1976 GTFE) occurred in the southern sector of Pl. Tolbachik. It was preceded by powerful earthquakes with local magnitudes between 2.5 and 4.9 and it was successfully predicted with a short-term forecast. The Kamchatka Branch of Geophysical Survey (KBGS) of the Russian Academy of Science (RAS) began to publish the results of daily seismic monitoring of active Kamchatka volcanoes on the Internet in 2000. Unlike the 1975–1976 {GTFE} precursor, (1) seismicity before the 2012–2013 Tolbachik Fissure Eruption (2012–2013 TFE) was relatively weak and earthquake magnitudes did not exceed 2.5. (2) Precursory earthquake hypocenters at 0–5 km depth were concentrated mainly under the southeastern part of the volcano. (3) The frequency of events gradually increased in September 2012, and rose sharply on the eve of the eruption. (4) According to seismic data, the explosive-effusive 2012–2013 {TFE} began at ~ 05 h 15 min {UTC} on November 27, 2012; the outbreak occurred between the summit of the Pl. Tolbachik and the Northern Breakthrough of the 1975–1976 GTFE. (5) Because of bad weather, early interpretations of the onset time and the character of the eruption were made using seismological data only and were confirmed later by other monitoring methods. The eruption finished in early September 2013. This article presents the data obtained through real-time seismic monitoring and the results of retrospective analysis, with additional comments on the future monitoring of volcanic activity